Friday 14 October 2022

I love Wales, and I like Scotland..... So IndyRefs?

I'm British.... If we want to delve further into that I was born in England and can trace an 8th of myself to very strong Irish Ancestry, the rest is a bit of Norfolk and a lot of Nottinghamshire.

As a kid I spent time holidaying in North Wales; and of late I've spent a bit of time holidaying on Anglesey.  I like Wales a lot.

I also like Scotland, I had a lovely friend who is Scottish, I've many acquaintances who are Scottish, and I toured Scotland once with notable stops in Dundee and Edinburgh.

Lately the wife and I have even contemplated moving to either country.

However, the thoughts of moving to Scotland were tempered with all this me-gudgeon about IndyRef2.  Now, I thought the matter was settled in the first, it was a close vote, I think every Scottish National voted; and they were out voted by everyone else; there were even a bunch of apathetic people who didn't even bother to vote and still the nationalists were out numbered.

And to be perfectly honest, I think recent times have taught us you're stronger together.  Doubly (or is that quadrupley?) so in terms of the UK.

So hearing all this hoo-haa about the possibility of another referendum and wanting to put things into perspective I took a look at the Scottish Governments own publications; they make for interesting reading.

And I of course focussed on the economy and how Scotland may fair as an independent unit, my question came down to one of Revenue versus expenditure, and to be perfectly honest if I were a Scot asking for independence I'd be scared stiff.

As an Englishman this is perhaps easy for me to say, and feel free to dismiss me; but I'm talking about the FOI-202200277763 publication of the Scottish Government; where it clearly states that "Around 40 per cent of the Scottish Budget 2020-2021 was funded from revenue raising powers devolved to the Scottish Parliament."

40%? Where does the rest of the 60% to keep the country afloat arrive in the coffers from?  "a block grant from the UK Government".

Right, so a lot of money goes into Scotland which it itself can't afford to provide, and I've taken a look, no-one; not one single party calling for IndyRef2 has an answer to this problem.  Indeed they don't ask it, and I find that so very worrying.

I'd even proffer my own opinion that is I, or anyone in Whitehall, asked the question they would have a decorative Shortbread tin stuffed down their gullet faster than you can say "Nicola Sturgeon".

So how do these politicians pulling on the strings of Nationalist Sympathy think the money will come from?  Honestly, I can only believe they think the UK would continue to stump up the cash; forgetting there would be no more UK.

The United Kingdom would cease to exist.

There would be Scotland and then the rest of the Kingdom; England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Assuming the latter did not continue to fund Scotland, which I believe they would in some way, but assuming that "we" didn't what would the Scottish Expenditure Portfolio become?

Well, I believe Health and Sport would take a hit, particularly Sport.   Quite what the split is between the two is not made clear in 202200277763.  But I think sport would go.

Communities and Local Government is the next big ticket item; well there would not be any "Local" in Government, there would just be the Scottish Government; but does that necessarily spell a saving?  I don't think so, for there would suddenly be a requirement for institutions to facilitate the functions of state.  For example, the Bank of Scotland would have to issue actual currency, Passports, Drivers licensing and control; so many things assumed to cost zero to Scotland today as they're provided services of the state would have to migrate and be picked up by Scotland.

Indeed in the current portfolio "Government Business and Constitutional Relations" shows as zero; because there is none, that cost would sky rocket; more so in a hostile departure from the Acts of Union.

Similarly the "Audit Scotland" would rise, Scottish Parliament too... So many things.

And I can only see the people of Scotland suffering, or the people remaining in the Union being forced to bail out the situation; so I don't get it.

Personally I do not get it, I do not see any need for England, or Wales, to depart the Union, and neither can I see this for Scotland.  It's almost an emotional reaction from some Scots, that they want to be independent, but asking them quite what that means, it means they want the status quo AND freedom; but looking at the books that can't happen.

Whatever your thoughts mine are quite sad, I'm personally strongly against moving to Scotland with this question poised as it is.  I would only move to Scotland if it were part of the Union anyway.


My References:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-202200277763/


https://www.gov.scot/policies/government-finance/setting-the-scottish-budget/


https://yourviews.parliament.scot/finance/scotland-public-finances-23-24/

https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-budget-guide/

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/scotlands-underlying-public-finances-are-improving-oil-and-gas-revenues-rise-long-term